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A wet and windy New Year is forecast for Tonga, as a slow moving low pressure system moves over the southern groups. A tropical depression called TD03F has the potential to turn into a Category 1 cyclone.

For the first time in 60 years, only one tropical storm has struck the Southern Hemisphere so far this year in Indonesia in late November, compared to an average of at least five storms by Christmas Day. However, at least eight to 10 tropical cyclones are expected to hit this season, while the sea temperature is warmer than usual.

Forecasts of drier conditions in the second half of 2017 may lead to the development of an El Nino climate cycle according to the Department of Meteorology (MET). However, although there is a 50% chance of El Nino developing, the El Nino - South Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral.

There is more sweltering warm weather ahead, says Tonga’s Meteorology department, with temperatures forecast to remain between 25C – 31C during the week with humidity between 80 - 90%. If you are heading to the beach to cool off, be aware of extreme high tides during the evenings this week.

Tonga’s island groups of Tongatapu, Vava’u, Ha’apai and ‘Eua escaped major damage from Tropical Cyclone Winston as it passed through Tonga yesterday and today, Tuesday, 16 February with winds gusts of 120km. Forecasters warn that the cyclone, now Cat. 3, is intensifying to the north east of Vava'u and may return for another pass through Tonga over the next few days.

Strong El Nino conditions, peaking in Tonga in recent weeks, have been among the three strongest El Nino events of the past 50-years, suggested by temperatures recorded in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Rainfall outlook for the next three-months is below average, with a higher chance of a tropical cyclone for Tonga.

Pacific Ministers for Meteorology, meeting in Nuku'alofa this week to consider the resilience of Pacific communities to extreme weather events, heard that the Pacific Islands region can expect an increase in the intensity of extreme weather - posing critical challenges to our safety, security and existence.

Current cool nights and low rainfall indicate that Tonga may be affected by a climatic condition known as “El Nino” with the potential of droughts occurring in the coming months. Water conservation is advised as an El Nino watch remains in force.

January this year has delivered some hot days for Tonga getting close to record temperatures, with more hot days forecast.