By Johnny Grattan Vaea Taione
Deep seabed mining is often presented as a new economic frontier for Pacific nations—a source of revenue, jobs, and minerals needed for the global energy transition. But when we look beyond the promises and examine the evidence, the conclusion for Tonga is clear: deep seabed mining is a high-risk gamble we cannot afford to take.
This is not an argument against development. It is an argument for choosing development paths that protect our people, our ocean, and our future.
The deep ocean is one of the least understood ecosystems on Earth. Scientific studies consistently warn that seabed mining would cause direct destruction of habitats and widespread indirect damage through sediment plumes, noise, vibration, and artificial light. These impacts are not confined to a single site. Sediment plumes can travel far beyond mining areas, smothering marine life and disrupting food chains.
For Tonga, this matters profoundly. Our ocean is not an abstract resource; it is the backbone of food security, livelihoods, culture, and national identity. Any activity that risks damaging tuna systems or coastal fisheries threatens not only biodiversity, but the daily survival of communities. Even a small chance of serious harm carries consequences that could last for generations.
Supporters of seabed mining argue that environmental risks can be managed through monitoring and regulation. This assumption is deeply flawed. The deep sea remains under-studied, baseline data are incomplete, and real-time detection of damage is extremely difficult and costly. Once harm occurs, it may be impossible to reverse.
In this situation, the risks fall disproportionately on small states like Tonga. Companies move on, but the environmental, legal, and reputational consequences remain with the nation. Having legislation on paper does not solve the fundamental problem of limited scientific certainty and enforcement capacity.
Key questions remain unanswered
Global governance does not offer reassurance. The international rules governing seabed mining are still unfinished and contested. Key questions around environmental protection, liability, transparency, and benefit-sharing remain unresolved. Yet pressure continues to approve mining before these safeguards are firmly in place.
This uncertainty increases Tonga’s exposure. If something goes wrong, it is the sponsoring state that bears responsibility in the eyes of the world, even when it has limited control over operations.
The Pacific already has a cautionary example. Papua New Guinea’s experience with the Solwara 1 project shows how seabed mining can fail financially and politically. Promised benefits did not materialise, while controversy, legal disputes, and reputational damage followed. Rather than leading to prosperity, the project became a warning to others.
The idea of a “first mover advantage” sounds appealing, but in reality it often becomes a “first mover penalty.” Small states become test cases for an unproven industry, absorbing risks while private actors limit their losses.
Economic benefits are also frequently overstated. Revenues depend on volatile mineral prices, unproven technology, and global supply chains beyond our control. At the same time, opportunity costs are ignored. A single major environmental incident affecting fisheries or Tonga’s clean-ocean reputation could outweigh decades of projected royalties.
The claim that seabed mining is essential for the global energy transition is increasingly questioned. Alternatives exist—better recycling, demand reduction, technological innovation, and stronger governance of land-based mining. Solving one environmental problem by creating another, deeper and less understood one, is not progress.
Tonga faces a clear choice. We can gamble with irreplaceable ocean systems for uncertain short-term gains, or we can act with foresight and responsibility. A long-term moratorium on deep seabed mining reflects precaution, intergenerational justice, and sound economic judgment.
True development strengthens resilience rather than risking it. For Tonga, saying no to deep seabed mining is not fear—it is leadership.
Johnny Grattan Vaea Taione is a former MP for Tongatapu 8 constituency.
