A global SOS on sea level rise was issued by the UN Secretary General António Guterres today in Tonga, at the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting, calling all world leaders to lead a fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels. “A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril,” said Guterres. “Global average sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate. The ocean is overflowing.”
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 report details how sea level rise in the region is above the global average. Sea surface temperatures have risen three times faster than the global average since 1980. During that time marine heatwaves have approximately doubled in frequency since 1980 and are more intense and are lasting longer.
“The reason is clear: greenhouse gases, overwhelmingly generated by burning fossil fuels, are cooking our planet. And the sea is taking the heat, literally,” said the UNSG.
Despite accounting for just 0.02% of global emissions, the Pacific islands are uniquely exposed.
But the problem is global, Guterres said. “Surging seas are coming for us all, together with the devastation of fishing, tourism, and the Blue Economy. Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas threatened by our swelling ocean. Yet even though some sea level rise is inevitable, its scale, pace, and impact are not. That depends on our decisions."
Sea level rise
In much of the Western Pacific, sea level has risen approximately 10–15 cm, close to or nearly twice the global rate measured since 1993. In the central Pacific, sea level has risen approximately 5-10 cm, according to the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 Report.
Rising sea levels have resulted in dramatic increases in the frequency of coastal flooding since 1980.
Global mean sea level will continue to rise over the 21st century in response to continued warming of the climate system, and this rise will continue for centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean heat uptake and mass loss from ice sheets.
Pacific Island nations in grave danger
Marine heatwaves are more intense and longer-lasting, doubling in frequency since 1980, and rising seas are amplifying the frequency and severity of storm surges and coastal flooding. These floods swamp coastal communities, ruin fisheries, damage crops, and contaminate fresh water.
"Pacific islands are uniquely exposed," said Guterres.
Without drastic cuts to emissions, the Pacific Islands can expect at least 15 centimeters of additional sea level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places.
"Only by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius do we have a fighting chance of preventing the irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and the catastrophes that accompany them," he said.
