There is a high chance of another cyclone forming up to the second week of March this year, even though Tonga has already experienced three cyclones this season as forecasted, Tonga Met predicts.

Director of the Meteorology Division ‘Ofa Fa’anunu, in his Tropical Cyclone Outlook today, said the chances of Tonga being affected by another tropical cyclone this season remains high and drier than normal conditions are expected to continue until May this year. "Caution is advised," he said.

Currently, there is enhanced cloudiness in the Southwest Pacific, which is expected to last three to four weeks. During this time, there is a higher chance of forming a tropical cyclone formation.

In the meantime, the current status of the El Nino indicates that it has reached a peak and is now gradually decreasing, while, sea surface temperatures are expected to be back to normal by June this year.

Cyclones

To date, there have been three cyclones Tropical Cyclone Tuni, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula and Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor, which all crossed Tongan waters consistent with the tropical cyclone outlook at the start of the season that two or three could be expected in the area.

This was also consistent with the traditional higher chance tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific during El Nino years.

The three cyclones did not cause widespread damage, but the storm surge from Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor (cat 3) caused damages to a causeway in Ha’apai and also washed one vehicle offshore when attempting to cross.

TC Ula (Cat 4) and TC Tuni  (Cat 1) had caused minor damages only to fruit bearing trees in Vava’u and Niuatoputapu.