A healthy democracy is often measured by how well it enables citizens to take part in the political process, with voter turnout and participation in civil-society groups serving as key indicators of public engagement.

Yet as Tonga’s parliament elects its prime minister on 15 December 2025, democratic gains risk being diluted if executive power consolidates around nobility rather than the people’s representatives.

Tonga, the only kingdom in the Pacific, undertook major political and democratic reforms in 2010 to strengthen political participation, including shifting power away from the monarch and increasing voters’ participation in political leadership and governance.

Tonga’s democratic transformation is ongoing. But after 15 years, there are signs indicating the monarchy and nobility are again assuming a greater role in governance and government. The general elections on 20 November 2025 — which filled 17 peoples’ representative seats and nine noble seats — may mark a shift from government led by the people to one increasingly dominated by the nobles.

With the demise of major political groups, the race for prime minister is now amongst independents in two camps — the nobles’ and people’s representatives — and hinges on how each strategically mobilises support.

Lord Fatafehi Fakafanua, a nobles’ representative and incumbent speaker of parliament, is a potential candidate for prime minister. The prospect of a noble leading the government has been publicly endorsed by another elected noble, Lord Vaea. Noble prime ministers are not unprecedented — Lord Tu‘ivakano held the role in 2010 immediately following Tonga’s democratic reforms. But Fakafanua will need the support of the 17 people’s representatives to secure the position. The contest remains open, with considerable deal making and political negotiations among potential contenders.

Unlike the 17 people’s representatives, the nine nobles’ representatives are not chosen by universal suffrage but are elected by about 30 individuals who hold Tonga’s 33 noble titles. If, as Lord Vaea argues, strong traditional leadership of nobles can steady political leadership in ways that have been lacking among people’s representative prime ministers, Lord Fakafanua may be well positioned to consolidate noble support.

Nobles’ representatives have generally voted as a unified bloc. Fakafanua’s own family connections are extensive — his first cousins are Lords Ma‘afu and Fotofili, who respectively represent Tongatapu and the Niuas, and his uncles are Lords Vaea and Tu‘iha‘angana, who represent Eua and Ha‘apai. He is also related to other elected nobles who could possibly lend support to his political bid. As the representative of Ha‘apai, Fakafanua may also persuade the two Ha‘apai people’s representatives to align with him. Though the 17 people’s representatives have traditionally dominated the election of a prime minister and the formation of government simply by virtue of their numbers, a well-organised noble coalition could alter that balance.

Competition for Fakafanua may come from former prime ministers — two people’s representatives, Siaosi Sovaleni and ‘Aisake Eke, as well as noble representative Lord Tu‘ivakano. Sovaleni and Eke are among the 10 people’s representatives who were re-elected in November 2025.

As the incumbent prime minister, Eke returns with four trusted ministers from his previous cabinet. During his term, Eke built a stable governing platform and repaired relations with the monarchy, including by appointing Crown Prince Tupouto‘a ‘Ulukalala as Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence and supporting legislation that restored the monarch’s authority over foreign affairs. Eke and Sovaleni were re-elected with nearly three-quarters of the electorate vote in their constituencies — the highest vote shares in this election — but they stood against weak challengers and were expected to hold their seats.

Former prime minister Sovaleni resigned in December 2024 before facing a no-confidence motion. His position had been weakened by a prolonged standoff with the monarch who withdrew confidence in two key ministerial portfolios, leading to Sovaleni’s resignation and enabling Eke to assume office in January 2025. Two of Sovaleni’s ministers in his government were re-elected in the 2025 election, but whether they will support his premiership bid remains to be seen.

Former prime minister Tu‘ivakano, a seasoned MP and an old hand at political manoeuvring, was among the most outspoken critics of Sovaleni during the impasse between Sovaleni’s government and the monarch. Tu‘ivakano remains influential among his noble peers and to a certain degree, among the people’s representatives. He may choose to lend his support to Fakafanua.

These dynamics unfold against the backdrop of declining voter participation. Turnout has fallen at every election since the 2010 high of 91 per cent, with only 49.4 per cent of the 63,484 registered voters casting ballots in 2025. Possible explanations include migration, with an estimated 5000 Tongan labourers working on labour schemes in New Zealand and Australia, a nationwide fuel shortage on polling day which might have prevented voters from turning up to cast their ballots, and broader disengagement from the political process.

Women’s political participation also remains low. Of the eight women who contested the 2025 election, only one was successful. The sole incumbent female MP, Dulcie Tei, was challenged and defeated by another woman, Fane Fituafe.

To build a more representative political system, Tonga’s ongoing reforms must address declining voter turnout, encourage greater political participation by women and ensure that both people’s and nobles’ representatives engage meaningfully in shaping government.

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Ema Ivarature is a freelance researcher.

ʻAkanesi Katoa is a consultant and former Senior Crown Counsel in the Tongan Attorney General’s Office.

Henry Ivarature is Deputy Director of Strategic Engagements at the Pacific Security College, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

This article was fiirst published on 12 December 2025  https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/12/12/tongas-elections-at-a-democratic-cr... [2]

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Based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy [3] within the College of Asia and the Pacific [4] at the Australian National University [5], East Asia Forum is the academic research network of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (EABER) [6].