Tonga may get average or above average rainfall for the next five months, according to the latest climate update from Tonga Meteorological Service released today.

The rainfall outlook for April and May is average or above average, while from June to August the outlook is for above average rainfall.

The 2020–21 La Niña, which usually brings more rain than normal to Tonga, is nearing its end. However, a number of atmospheric indicators remain at La Niña levels, meaning its influence is likely to persist into April.

Given the current La Nina status, Tonga Met advises the public to collect water when it rains and stay alert at all times to forecasts and warnings provided.

In February, there was average to above average rainfall recorded with the Niuas recording the highest rainfall, with 420.2mm in Niuafo’ou and 418.6mm in Niuatoputapu.

The mean temperature was 26.6 degrees C which was 0.6 degrees cooler than average.

The highest maximum temperature was 32.3 degree on 17 February in Nuku’alofa. The lowest minimum temperature was 18.3 degree C in 'Eua on 28 February. 

Traditional knowledge indicating cyclones

Tonga Met is also using traditional knowledge indicators to forecast tropical cyclones. This includes;

• Fruit trees unusually bearing plenty of fruits especially mangoes and breadfruit indicates alert people of a possible cyclone to happen that year. Currently, fruits are hardly bearing fruits. 

• Bees nesting lower near the ground and inside empty cococut shells to hide from cyclones. Currently, bees are seen to nest in the open, meaning no sign of cyclone yet. 

• Spiders normally nest in closed areas where it is safe, as seen now spiders are making their web in the open meaning no sign yet of a coming cyclone. 

• Young shoots of banana leaves bending is a sign to alert people of a possible cyclone. This sign is not seen yet. 

• Frigate birds hunting inland but it is not normal for them to come inland, this is a sign that usually alert people of a possible cyclone. We have not seen flock of frigate birds inland these days.

Tongan Calendar

This is part of Vaimu’a and Vaimui (March to April), with rain from March to April and also the time when cyclones occurs or bad weather occurs, which also brings rain.

Faka‘afumo‘ui (part of April and May). Yam crops start producing secondary tubers, which are good planting materials. Season is still very active in terms of food from the plantation and cyclones and is the part of the season where people live in fear of cyclones.

Faka‘afumate (May to June), this time soil begins to dry up and it’s time to harvest. Vegetation begins to stop producing new growth, including the yam crop. This indicates crop maturity and that harvest is coming.

The next climate update will be out in early April.