Water shortage plans are being activated while an El Nino warning was declared for the whole of Tonga, by Tonga's Meteorology Service on Friday, 19 December. The current drought  for Tongatapu, 'Eua, Ha'apai and Vava'u is expected to continue for another three months.

El Nino usually brings cooler dry seasons, and drier wet seasons than normal, and more cyclones.

The Meteorology Service stated that the probability for El Nino occurring during the December 2014 to February 2015 period is about 70%.

For Vava'u, Ha'apai and Tongatapu rainfull was well below expectation. In November Vava'u received only 13mm instead of 135mm; Ha'apai received 11mm instead of 114mm, and Tongatapu, received only 29mm instead of 103mm.

The rainfall for Niuafo'ou and Niutoputapu during November was normal for the season with 228mm for Niuafo'ou and 186mm for Niuatoputapu.

The island of 'Eua is also experiencing drought, but because of its waterfalls, the island still has a supply of water.

The Meteorology Service is calling on planners in the drought affected areas "to activate water shortage plans and prepare for possible continuation of below average rainfall in the coming three months."

During August-October rainfall through out the country was reported to be below normal.

Water shortage

The worst affected areas are the out-lying islands, which rely entirely on rain water for their drinking water.

Kulasi Vaomotou of the Tonga Red Cross said that last week they produced 5000 liters of drinking water with their desalination facility for the people on the island of 'Atata to the north west of Nuku'alofa.

This week Tonga Red Cross was looking at activating their desalination facility on the island of 'Eueiki, to the north east of Nuku'alofa.

Kulasi said that these out-lying islands lacked large capacity water storage facilities, except for 'Atata where the holiday resort on the island could store 5000 litres.

As the drought continues well into the normal rainy season the impact on livestock and agriculture in the drought stricken areas is getting worse.

Hale Kalokalo, from the Livestock Division of the Ministry of Agriculture said that livestock, particularly cattle in paddocks are facing great difficulty, "no grass, and no water". He estimated a cow needs 20 liters of water per day.

Hale's advice for people with cattle is not to leaive them in paddocks but to tie them up and move to places where they can be fed, and hopefully also to find water.

The national food supply according to Mana'ia Halafihi, from the Ministry of Agriculture is still plentiful, but the impact of the long drought is already noticeable. "It is already harvest season for 'Ufi and the 'ufi are stunted. The same with breadfruit which is in season, but they are small and dried up."

El Nino can also bring more cyclones.

According to the Met Office, "usually Tonga is affected by one cyclone per year, but this increases to around two during El Nino."