Editor,

ON paper, the nobles political platform will go into November being better positioned to influence the selection of the first Cabinet and therefore shape the initial form and make-up of our new democracy. For the despairing purists who would have preferred a commoners' government and who see the nobility's rise in influence as an undesirable outcome, they may have to just "suck it up" and wait. The nobles' influence could well be a blessing in disguise and in fact what the country needs.

With only months to go to the election, the people's representatives as a power bloc are divided and incoherent. It lacks the cohesion that is required of a serious contender for the whip hand the new system has on offer. It is unlikely that they will be able to address these divisions in time for November and it is reasonable to expect the next PM and Cabinet to be mandated primarily by the nobles' united influence. To do this they will need a handful of people's MPs who will have seen the political advantage that this will bring them. It will only take 5 people's representatives to align with the nobles and the rest is history. The recent transformation of the nobility from a serving class to the monarchy to a well-educated, cosmopolitan and politically astute elite is an untold story, but this power bloc understands power and how to get and wield it.

When the Commission were deliberating over the numbers, the focus of commentary then was whether it was democratic or fair to give 33 heads of families more than a third of our elected representatives. Looking back, it was probably naïve, lacked depth as well rather short-sighted. The part of the political equation which was missing from the noise was whether the people's representatives could muster 14 MPs together and hold them down to form a stable government. The answer then as it is now is an emphatic no. Again on paper, it is a more achievable task for the nobles to win over 5 independent MPs - women and overseas carpetbagging hopefuls please note - than for the pro-democracy movement or the other parties still in the shadows, to put 14 cats together into a cage and expect them to behave. History favours the three people's representatives from the Vava'u electorates to be politically independent. At least two MPs from the pro-democracy ranks at present are independent enough and politically ripe to be picked off before or after the elections. The strong showing of some long serving town-officers in Tongatapu and the establishment of local electorates will likely bring an important development that the nobles should take an interest in. An election campaign based on political stability that a coalition of independents grouped around the noble's platform could offer a more palatable alternative to the instability and disruptions experienced of late. A divided people's representatives will help this along.

The caveat to this scenario is that our aspiring people's MPs can pull a rabbit out of the hat and as we all know, the only rabbits in Tonga are dead ones! But seriously, the pro-democracy movement is the only contender to wield and hold power on behalf of the people if only it could shed it's one-dimensional scorched earth attitude and at least signal that it is able to move from "dismantling mode" to a "rebuilding phase". It needs to show that it can govern. If it is already doing this work, then we have not seen it presented coherently so that there is a national awareness of what and how they see the future. There seems to be an expectation that as the electorate are fully aware of what they think and say about the past and as they have been the political flagbearer for change, that should be enough to carry them through in November. They are being overly optimistic. It will definitely get some of them through but unless they have the numbers to shape Cabinet and select the PM, they will continue to occupy the "opposition" ranks. It will be unjust rewards for decades of toil.

If we end up with a nobility-mandated Cabinet helped along by 5 or so people's MPs after November, it is a consequence that won't sit well with many but one we deserve and from where I sit, we could do a lot worse.

Sefita Hao'uli

sefita [dot] haouli [at] gmail [dot] com ( sefita [dot] haouli [at] gmail [dot] com)