By Pesi Fonua

AS we await the opening of Tonga's new Parliament before January 13, Nuku'aofa is buzzing with speculation over the likely composition of the new Cabinet that Prime Minister Tu'ivakano is about to name.

The great danger of Tonga's current political reform experiment is that Tongans could have unwittingly elected a dictator into power. But that did not happen this time because only one political party participated in the contest to choose a Prime Minister and ended up with a minority show of hands in the House. The members who voted for the new Prime Minister have not signed any MOU and are independents, including the Nobles who have their own common interest.

The result of the vote for Prime Minister shows the House has been clearly divided between the bloc of 14 independent members, and the 12 members of the Paati Temokalati 'a e 'Otuanga'ofa (PTO).

The division may be considered good from the perspective of a Western Democracy of having a "ruling party" in power and an "opposition", but the fact remains that the new composition of the Tongan parliament under the political reform program was designed for a parliament to rule by consensus - by a minority government - and not by a powerful political party or a bloc of members.

Although the reformed system, ostensibly, was not built to be ruled by a political party, now, by default, it is going to be.

Members of the PTO and the bloc of independents during their round of speeches to promote their nominees for a Prime Minister were both entrenched in their views: the PTO that they had signed a MOU which they are bound by; while the bloc of independents insisted on the politics of consensus and for all members of the House to work together.

If this division is allowed to continue then we will see a House with the independents bloc holding an overwhelming majority in Cabinet and in Parliament.

With regards to consensus it means that the Prime Minister should pick the best from the 26 members of the House for a position in government, and not just for the sake of having a token member of the party in Cabinet.

In forming their government, the independents bloc do not need to give a position in Cabinet to any of the PTO members, because among themselves they already have several experienced Cabinet ministers and former civil servants and they will surely be under consideration for Cabinet posts.

New Prime Minister Lord Tu'ivakano, along with Lord Ma'afu, Lisiate 'Akolo, and Samiu Vaipulu are four Cabinet Ministers in the caretaker government. Sosefo Vakata, a former civil servant; Viliami Latu, a former civil servant and recently Chief Clerk of the House; and Sunia Fili, a well seasoned People's Representative. From among the nobles, Lord Vaea and Lord Fakafanua could put in their claim for any Cabinet posts. In addition, of course, the unknown factor of a new government is that the reform allows the Prime Minister to bring in four ministers from outside. With those additional four Cabinet Ministers the number of the independent members in parliament could rise to 18.

With such a powerful bloc in power, and the PTO being outnumbered and outmanoeuvred, we are now coming face to face with what we did not want to happen, that the reformed system allows a strong, possibly dictatorial, group to dominate the House.

The flaw in the reformed system that allows the possibility of electing a dictator into power has been clearly demonstrated. So the only hope now is that the independents bloc with their strong majority, will adjust the reform program, and advance Tonga to a more democratic system of government.

To do that we hope they adhere to their principles and instead of consolidating their power in their own interests, they will continue with the political reform process and since it is clear that political parties will play a dominant role in future elections there is a need to introduce some new rules for that process.