Progress on climate adaptation is slowing, while the world is heading for a temperature rise far above the global average temperature, say reports recently released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

These reports drew attention at COP28. As the global authority for the environment, the UNEP hosted two events, yesterday,  5 December, at COP28 in Dubai, UAE, to present their latest reports; the Adaptation Gap Report, and the Emissions Gap Report.

Adaptation Gap report

The Adaptation Gap Report finds that progress on climate adaptation is slowing, when it should be accelerating to catch up with the rising climate change impacts.

In this year alone, temperature records toppled, while storms, floods, droughts, and heatwaves caused devastation.

The Adaptation Gap report looked at progress in planning, financing, and implementing adaptation actions.

It finds that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10 to 18 times as big as international public finance flows. This is over 50% higher than the previous range estimate.

The modelled costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at US$215 billion per year this decade. The adaptation finance needed, to implement domestic adaptation priorities, is estimated at US$387 billion per year.

Despite these needs, public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15% to US$21 billion in 2021.

As a result of the growing adaptation finance needs and faltering flows, the current adaptation finance gap is now estimated at US$194-366 billion per year.

At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appeared to be plateauing.

Thy state that this failure to adapt has massive implications for losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, the Adaptation Gap report identifies seven ways to increase financing, including through domestic expenditure and international and private sector finance. Additional avenues include remittances, increasing and tailoring finance to Small and Medium Enterprises, and a reform of the global financial architecture.

The new Loss and Damage Fund will also need to move towards more innovative financing mechanisms to reach the necessary scale of investment.

Emissions Gap Report

The Emissions Gap Report finds that the world is heading for a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goals, unless countries deliver more than they have promised.

The report is the 14^th edition in a series that brings together many of the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in greenhouse gas emissions, and provide potential solutions to the challenge of global warming.

The Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16% at the time of the agreement’s adoption, however, there have been progress, as today, the projected increase is 3%.

Still, the predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 28% for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway, and 42% for the 1.5°C pathway.

Meanwhile, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) made under the Paris Agreement would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and  would lower this to 2.5°C.

The report calls for all nations to accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations.

Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions will need to take more ambitious action and support developing nations as they pursue low-emissions development growth.