At least two tropical cyclones are predicted to cross Tonga waters during the 2021-2022 cyclone season with a high chance that one will be severe, according to Tonga Meteorology Services cyclone outlook report today.

Under La Nina conditions, there is a higher risk of Tongatapu and ‘Eua being affected by a tropical cyclone than other parts of Tonga.

The cyclones are expected to mostly come from the West and North-West or from the direction of Fiji and the rest from the North, East, and North-East.

Tonga Met said the 2021-2022 Tropical Cyclone Season is likely to be largely influenced by La Nina conditions, which may bring above average rainfall to all of Tonga.

For the South West Pacific Region, around five to 10 named tropical cyclones are expected with up to three reaching Category 3 to 5.

Current dynamics indicated that the First Tropical Cyclone activity for this season in the South West Pacific region could start from around early to mid-December 2021.

The official 2021 / 2022 TC Season will begin on 1 November 2021 and will officially end on 30 April 2022.

Tonga Me advised the public to start preparing and fix shutters and trim trees near the house in case of a severe event.

“All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2021-2022 Tropical Cyclone Season and take heed of tropical cyclone alerts, warnings and advisories seriously whenever it is issued to reduce the negative effects on life and property.”

“All communities are urged to be vigilant and follow forecast information provided by the Meteorology Services during the season. An update outlook will be issued at the end of January 2022.”

Tropical Cyclones that have affected Tonga in the past where current and forecast conditions are similar to the 2021 / 2022 Tropical Cyclone Season are indicated in the table below.