Tonga among world’s most exposed countries to natural disasters [1]
Saturday, July 4, 2020 - 15:16. Updated on Saturday, July 4, 2020 - 20:47.
Tonga is one of the world’s most exposed countries to climate change and natural disasters. It suffered the highest loss from natural disasters in the world (as a ratio to GDP) in 2018. “Climate change will make this worse,” says a new IMF assessment that was released this week.
“Cyclones will become more intense, with more damage from wind and sea surges. Rising sea levels will cause more flooding, coastal erosion and contaminate fresh water. Daily high temperatures will become more extreme, with more severe floods and drought.”
This was the finding of a Technical Assistance Report and Climate Change Policy Assessment conducted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank with the Tonga Government this year.
Tonga needs a staggering USD$671 million to finance the needs of its climate change strategy.
The report states that the demands of building climate change resilience will make achieving Tonga’s development goals even more difficult.
“Tonga is especially vulnerable to these hazards. Its economy relies on agriculture, tourism, and fishery, its infrastructure and public services are largely not climate resilient, the population lives in places highly exposed to natural disasters, and its development needs are still substantial. Cyclone Gita in 2018 demonstrated this vulnerability, causing immediate damage of 38 percent of GDP, and will have long-lasting effects, for example, on the children whose education was disrupted after their schools were damaged.”
Tonga has known this for a long time.
In 2015 the Tongan government identified that “climate change is the single biggest issue that will determine the future of Tonga over the coming decades and will require a whole-of-Tonga level of cooperation and coordination.”
In 2018 Tonga suffered the highest loss from natural disasters in the world, and is among the top five over the last decade. The other four countries that make up the top five are Samoa, Oman, Madagascar and Sri Lanka.
To have a clear picture of where Tonga is with its Climate Change policy, the CEO for the Ministry of Finance, Baldwin Fa’otusia, requested the assessment of Tonga’s Climate Change Policy. A joint International Monetary Fund IMF-World Bank mission arrived in Tonga on February 3-10 to conduct the Climate change Policy Assessment.
According to the 69 pages report completed in April 2020, “Tonga’s main Climate Challenge is to build resilience.”
Unfortunately, the list of projects to achieve this is long and expensive, and the cost will amount to about 140% of Tonga’s 2018 Gross Domestic Product.
But Tonga does not have adequate financing to meet the needs of its Climate Change strategy.
The report states that only about half of the identified climate-related projects have committed financing.
“Within the total identified spending needs of about US$671 million, about 57 percent have committed, mainly external, financing either through a signed or advance financial agreement...
“Grants are expected to constitute the main source of funds. About an additional 7 percent of the total climate-related projects have a well-advanced proposal ready for submission and financing sources are broadly identified, but with no firm commitment. The financing gap is estimated at about US$289 million (60 percent of 2018 GDP).
“Filling this gap will require additional grant financing that—based on the past trends and current development partners’ policies—seems to have a reasonable possibility of being met.”
The report recommends that because of Tonga’s high risk of debt distress, external financing should be in the form of grants.
Tonga also has other development goals to achieve but because of our limited capacity to finance our climate resilience needs the support of the international community is essential.
Existential threat
“The international community could more fully recognize the already-occurring impact of climate change on Tonga and the existential threat it poses. Most obviously, the international community should reduce emissions to stabilize global warming.”
Some of the Priority needs to be met:
- Update the National Infrastructure Investment Plan country program and whole-of-government investment and other projects, and provide updates in the annual budget.
- Mainstream climate awareness more fully into all government priorities and activities.
- Improve disaster management by providing an overarching framework, a clearer role for the National Emergency Management Office (NEMO), continuing to develop a fully-integrated multi-hazard early warning system.
- Implement structural economic reforms, such as improving and enforcing land-use and building codes, building out social protection and insurance coverage.
- Continue with scaling up renewable power, and price electricity correctly.
By the International Community:
- Reduce emissions to stabilize global warning
- Fully recognize the already-occurring impact of climate change on Tonga and the existential threat it poses
- Help finance (via grants) Tonga’s climate agenda (the current project list has a financial gap of about $300m, especially adaptation, maintenance, and insurance
- Streamline access to international climate funds and assist Tonga in applying
- Coordinate better on projects and support Tonga’s own public financial management systems
- Broaden coverage of regional parametric insurance schemes (to cover storm surges)
- Partner with Tonga and other Pacific Island countries in considering longer-term, and potentially transformative, approaches, including supporting migration from at-risk areas
See Coastal Risk Screening Tool:
Climate Central: Tonga Land projected to be below annual flood level in 2100 [2]