Tonga Met expects average cyclone season [1]
Tuesday, October 22, 2019 - 17:41. Updated on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 - 21:54.
One or two cyclones may be expected in Tongan waters, in the coming cyclone season (November-April) according to a weather outlook [2] by Tonga's Meteorological Service.
“Historical records indicate that Tonga could expect at least one cyclone and at most four cyclones to occur, with a high chance (85%) of at least one severe tropical cyclone occurring”.
The 2019/2020 cyclone season officially begins on 1 November and ends on 30 April, with cyclone activity usually peaking between January and March. Predictions based on sea surface temperature patterns expect the 2019/20 Tropical Cyclone season to be similar to 12 other seasons in the past, most recently the 2013/14 season.
Tropical cyclones affecting Tonga in the 2019/2020 season should expect to be mostly coming from the NW (Fiji Area – 42%), West (29%), NE (Samoa Area – 16%), North (Wallis/Futuna – 13%).
About 5 to 8 named Tropical Cyclones are expected for the South West Pacific (Fiji Area of Responsibility) in 2019/2020 season with 2 to 4 reaching severe intensity (Category 3 to 5).
Current dynamics indicate the first tropical cyclone activity for the season in the South West Pacific could be around the beginning to mid-December 2019.
Outlook
Agriculture
There is an elevated risk that the agriculture sector will be affected. Particularly crops prone to high winds e.g. Banana, Papaya, Breadfruit and lower than normal summer rainfall e.g. Kava, Taro and Vegetables. Seek advice from MAFFF.
Water
Water shortages during the could be experienced in areas dependent on rain water harvesting but risk of extensive meteorological drought occurring is considered low. Smaller islands that rely on rain water should use water wisely.
Health
Higher risk of water contamination related diseases occurring due to the higher risk of a severe cyclone occurring.
Infrastructure
High risk of damage to poorly constructed homes due to increased likelihood of a Severe Cyclone.
Tourism
Moderate to high risk for Tourism activities due to higher chance of a severe cyclone happening.
Fisheries
Tuna catches should be normal due to neutral ENSO conditions. Expect low to moderate coral bleaching or algae blooms associated with changes in sea surface temperature which could expose inshore fisher folk.
Utilities
Moderate to High risk to Communications, Water and Power utilities expected.
Transport
Moderate risk of above than normal cancellations to ferry and aircraft operations due to tropical cyclone activity.
Tonga's Meteorological divisions is part of MEIDECC (Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications).