With drier weather than normal, forecast for the next few months, Tonga Meteorological Service is urging people to conserve water as conditions favour the emergence of El Nino.

Rainfall is forecast to be below average between September and November for Vava’u and Niuatoputapu, and average for the rest of the country. However, the rainfall outlook for December 2018 – February 2019 is below average for the whole of Tonga (refer to Table 1).

This follows the very dry conditions with less than average rainfall experienced on Tongatapu, Vava’u, and Ha’apai in August.

El Nino

During August, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in the Pacific with the Southern Oscillation Index was negative at -0.9, on the El Nino side.

According to Tonga MET, there is a 62% chance for El Nino conditions to emerge during September to November, and a 78% chance during March-May 2019.

During El Nino, rainfall in Tonga is below average especially on the onset of El Nino.

Given the forecast and the ENSO status, and rainfall over the last three months, Tonga MET is urging people to use water wisely and collect as much water as possible when it rains.