Tonga's tsunami risk has increased this year with over 800 earthquakes in the first six months of 2006, following nearly 900 quakes in 2005, but as yet there is no system in place that can give Tongans rapid warning of a damaging wave.

Tonga would simply be unable to deal with the disaster of a damaging earthquake or a tsunami, and some experts fear that the panic of a disorganized evacuation could also claim lives in the next big quake. Although scientists can't predict it, there remains a feeling that current geological activity centred in Tonga means that next big quake may come sooner rather than later.

Kelepi Mafi, the Principal Government Geologist of Tonga...’s Ministry of Lands and Survey said on July 25 that Tonga has no rescue operation plan in case of a tsunami, "there are no proper preparations procedures in place, no drills on which road to go or in what order. If a tsunami strikes tomorrow there will be more deaths resulting from the evacuation process itself than from the actual damages brought about by the tsunami," he said.

To date Tonga's disaster preparation for earthquakes and tsunamis is merely a data collecting facility.

Kelepi said that in 2004 four seismographs stations were installed, one each for Tongatapu, Vava...’u, Ha...’apai and Niuafo...’ou. "The stations monitor the location, depth and magnitudes of an earthquakes and transmit the data to the Geological main station at Vaololoa.

"There is no 24 hours tsunami warning system for Tonga. If an earthquake hits Tonga, it will take me five minutes to drive down to the office to calculate the data automatically received at the office, and I'll spend an average of 15 minutes to half an hour calculating it before I pass it on to the National Disaster Committee to declare a public warning - far too slow. My advice for the public is to take proper precautions whenever there is an earthquake."

Because most of Tonga is low-lying the only precautions the public can take is to stay away from the coastal areas and move inland as far as possible.

The Ministry of Lands has a website but they have not been able to post any data of earthquakes due to some technological setbacks. The most recent earthquake on July 24, 325km northwest of Nuku'alofa has not even been recorded.

Maliu Takai of the National Disaster unit of Tonga...’s Ministry of Works confirmed that the National Disaster Committee has the authority to inform the public of tsunami warnings once a warning is issued by the Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii. But he admitted that the moment the committee has no alerting system in place, but they are working on a tsunami response and evacuation plan.

The number of earthquakes that have jolted Tonga during the past few years are on the rise, 880 in 2005 and 807 during the first six months of 2006, according to USGS records.

Like earthquakes, volcanic activity in Tonga's active western undersea ridge could also be the precursor of a tsunami.

Plates movement

However, a volcanologist, Paul Taylor, does not think that the May seismic activity in Tonga was necessarily an indicator of increased volcanic activity.

Paul, of the Australian Volcanological Investigations, thought that based on the information on the USGS website, which put the location of the May 4 activity to the east of Ha'apai, "The quake was most likely associated with movement of the down-going Pacific plate along the Tonga Trench. I also understand that there have been a number of after shocks of a lesser magnitude than the major event," he said.

"It is unlikely that the quakes were associated with any volcanic activity at Tofua or Kao. In scientific terms, it could not be suggested that the main event or the aftershocks (if they were at a similar location) were a precursor to anything that may occur in the future. I would suggest that although Tofua may be intermittently active at low levels the events would not suggest increased activity in the future," he said.