As Tonga pushes for higher exports in agriculture produce, with the PACER Plus Agreement ready to be signed this month, the forecast for drier weather and the chance of another El Nino raises fresh concerns about water.

Tonga’s Department of Meteorology reports there is a 50% chance of El Nino developing in the southern Pacific because the sea surface temperature is 0.5C warmer than normal and drier conditions are predicted for the remainder of the year. 

MAFFF CEO, Dr Viliami Manu said that although El Nino has not been confirmed, farmers still need to prepare and this means farmers should consider reducing the amount of stock and crops to gain better quality produce in the face of drier conditions.

“Agriculture [MAFFF] has to prepare the farmers and the agriculture sector just in case [El Nino] does occur.

"Farmers should also look at planting drought tolerant crops such as cassava, sweet potato and pineapple."

Agriculture exports

Dr Manu said that drought tolerant crops fared better in drier conditions.

“Over the last three years, Cassava dominated exports.”

He said that although commercial farmers were concentrating more on watermelon and squash for export, they needed a lot of water and considering the prediction of drier weather, farmers should also think about growing Tongan crops for export.

He said MAFFF is looking at encouraging household farmers as potential exporters of Tongan crops such as yam, cassava, talo and sweet potato.

“We should concentrate on growing yams, cassava and other Tongan root crops to export to other Pacific countries as well as New Zealand and Australia.”

With a large diaspora of Tongans and Pacific Islanders living overseas, he says the market is there.

“Australia imports yams from Vietnam, so we should tap into that market.”

However, with Tonga being a small country and having a small harvest, it may be difficult but Dr Manu believes it is possible.

El Nino effects have been felt over the last few years with produce such as kava. Kava plants were affected by a combination of drought and cyclones over the last few years.

Retail price for kava a few years ago was $25 per kilo. Currently it costs between $100 - $150 per kilo.

Water and climate change

Future predictions by the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report 2016 rates climate change and water as the world’s highest risks facing society.

It estimates that by 2030 there could be a 40% shortfall in water supply in the world if no changes are made to how it is managed.

Climate change and water risks are linked to agriculture produce, highlighting food security concerns. Higher average temperatures will result in shorter growing seasons and lower harvest.

While there is an abundant supply of water and food in Tonga, climate change will bring more risks over time with the rise in sea levels, and frequent and stronger natural disasters, affecting access to clean water, food, and hindering economic growth.