Crisis may 'boost Aussie Grip' on Timor [1]
Wednesday, February 13, 2008 - 05:03. Updated on Wednesday, July 22, 2015 - 14:03.
Rebel attacks on East Timor's president and prime minister provide Australia with an opportunity to strengthen its hold over East Timor, a US strategic think tank says.
Stratfor, a Texas-based private sector intelligence group, says Canberra wants to prevent East Timor ever standing on its own, ensuring any key decisions are driven by Australia, with its own national security interests coming first.
Rebel leader Alfredo Reinado, who was killed in Monday's assassination attempts on President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, was the primary source of unrest in an otherwise stable East Timor, it said.
"Reinado's killing and Ramos-Horta's shooting provide an opportunity for Australia to strengthen its hold over East Timor, which forms a key part of Canberra's efforts to extend its influence to the states scattered along its periphery," Stratfor said in an analysis, released on Tuesday.
"Other key states include Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands."
Stratfor said keeping these states intact, using a mix of money and peacekeeping troops, was central to Australia's fundamental security and deprived potential enemies of the chance to foment unrest in its backyard.
"Australia needs to prevent other international powers, such as China, from cutting deals with political incumbents whose interests do not align with Canberra's and to stop militant entities, such as al-Qaeda, from infiltrating factions in local society within these states."
Stratfor claimed Dr Ramos-Horta had been an obstacle to Australian goals, seeking to break East Timor's traditional reliance on Australian funding and turning to China as an alternative source of funding.
It said Canberra was already moving to exploit this opportunity with the deployment of extra troops and police.
"Now Canberra's preferred East Timorese leader (Mr Gusmao) looks set to be manoeuvred into position," it said.
"Coupled with the recent Indonesian-Australian security pact with Jakarta, Australia's grip over its backyard is tightening." SMH Online/Pacific Media Watch, 12/02/08.