Tonga's future, up for grabs [1]
Wednesday, November 24, 2010 - 12:30. Updated on Tuesday, April 29, 2014 - 18:52.
by Pesi Fonua
The Tongan Commoners tomorrow, November 25 will be given the opportunity in Tonga's Parliamentary Election to choose their 17 representatives to enter parliament. This is the first step in setting up a new government The representatives that they elect tomorrow will become the decision makers in a second round of voting, which is the election of a Prime Minister to lead the country during the next four years.
Tomorrow's general election is not only an opportunity but also a big challenge for the 42,000 common voters to elect a "team" of 17 People's Representatives from the 17 single-seat constituencies throughout the Kingdom.
A team is needed to play the voting game.
Because when the 17 new PRs proceed to the second round of Tonga's Parliamentary Election they will find themselves facing the will of the nine Nobles' Representatives who are also to be elected by the Nobles in their own polling tomorrow.
Then there will be a contest to see who will become the new Prime Minister from among the 26 members of parliament. The Prime Minister in turn, of course will elect his Cabinet from the elected members of the House and bring in another four ministers from outside, to make a Legislature of 30 people.
Of course, since the Nobles have only nine seats and the People have 17 seats the numbers suggest that the People should be able to choose who becomes the next Prime Minister.
But in fact that might not be the case.
It is highly likely that the Nobles will prefer a Prime Minister to come from among their own number. They have a strong and experienced voting team who have been working together inside and outside of the Legislature for years. They know how to negotiate the differences within their small number to produce a desired outcome.
The People need a united team so that they can out vote the nobles.
But when we look at the squads of candidates it appears that a diverse group of individuals will fill the 17 seats a hotchpotch of characters covering a political spectrum as big as the watery kingdom itself and with factionalism and intense competition more apparent than any recently declared political unity.
Realistically, the 42,000 common voters should be voting from a game plan to ascertain that they have a good team to proceed to the second round. But unfortunately the nation of 17 constituencies will have great difficulty in selecting a team that can successfully choose a Prime Minister.
So democracy, for the 42,000 common voters, is going to be like trying to remember the combination of the lock to your treasure box.
Generally, voters will be thinking only of who could advantage the interest of his or her own constituency. They will leave the choice of the Prime Minister to fate or the luck of the draw..
Because to get 17 People's Representative to be united and work together is a forgotten combination.
If for example, if a majority of voters were to vote with the 17 digit constituencies names already clear in their mind, then bingo! The People will have a majority and at the end of the first round we would already know who was going to be the Prime Minister. "Power to the people," we could say.
But since we just can't remember the combination or even the fact that there is no combination, then most definitely they will elect 17 People's representatives who will be running all over the field, and the newcomers might even score against their own side.
When we will get into the second round of our election, the final election of a Prime Minister, if our 17 People's Representatives still can't remember their lock combination, then there is a possibility for some vote-trading by the nobles, with the offer of cabinet posts for votes in return for voting for the Nobles' choice of a Prime Minister.
But it may also happen that the nobles can't remember their own lock combination, and if might be just as disunited as the commoners.
If new Parliament cannot agree on who should be Prime Minister then, I am afraid, the Referee: the King, will blow his whistle and stop the game. After consulting his supporting judges, including the new Lord Chancellor to be appointed (also as head of the Defence Service), the Law Lords and the Privy Council, his final decision might be to call the game off.
What will happen next will be anyone's guess. The elected members may be sent away to go and learn how to play the game properly, and there may be requirements for future trial matches before there is another election, no one knows.
It is extremely difficult for Common voters to be pragmatic with their vote if we do not have the representatives with leadership qualities. If we can't have a team that can work together then we will waste our advantage of having 17 representatives in the House, and lose the opportunity of having a People's Representative as a Prime Minister, who will select his Cabinet to form a government and run the country.
An exception to this might be if the nobles were united on the choice of a commoner Prime Minister but then, of course, the people would have to elect that person into the house first.